This is one of the most difficult matches to call that I've previewed so far. Both men got the semifinals by coming back from the dead in their previous
quarterfinal match. Federer got somewhat lucky to recover from two sets down against Del Potro where an injury gave the Argentine trouble after the second set, in a match where Federer struggled to find his rhythm (once again). Djokovic
saved four match points in emphatic fashion against home-crowd favourite Tsonga - proving once again that his mental strength is on another level right now. Tsonga was understandably devastated after succumbing in the fifth set where his back was troubling him.
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| The Serb comes through saving match points against Tsonga. |
Both Djokovic and Federer were up and down in their matches and both will have to become more consistent to be sure of reaching the final. Djokovic looked to be in very good shape for the first hour or so of his match and served pretty well throughout the whole match - hitting more aces than Tsonga despite both of them having very similar first serve percentages. Federer on the other hand, could have served a lot better. In the first two sets his percentage was about 50% and they weren't the most threatening of serves. When Federer plays the top guys, serving well is a must as he needs to be on the front foot in the rallies as soon as he possibly can - the longer the rally continues, the less likely he is to win it - and the serve is his best attribute to do this. If Federer doesn't serve at about 60%+ tomorrow, he will certainly have a hard time up against the greatest returner in the game. Neither can Federer afford to have a slow start. So far this tournament Federer has come out of the blocks pretty slowly, giving his opponent a sense of belief that they could do damage. Normally his best set is the first one - I believe that if tennis was a one-set sport, Federer would still be number one - so this is pretty unusual.
Just like I said for Federer, Djokovic can't afford to be up and down in the match because as soon as his level comes down a bit, Federer will be quick to take advantage. This is somewhat what happened in Federer's previous match. But if Djokovic plays at a consistent good level he will be very difficult to beat and will most likely win. He's a fantastic mover on all surfaces and will make Federer play a lot of balls, and I imagine he'll extract the error pretty often. Djokovic is also fantastic at turning defence into attack - and this is why he's had so much success against Nadal lately. This is another thing the Swiss will have to look out for.
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| Relief for the Swiss as he succeeds to come back from the dead. |
The two players have played each other more than enough times to know what to expect, and they will both know what they need to do to be victorious - but executing the game plan is another matter, especially with the variability of form they have shown so far this tournament - Federer in particular. For this reason I would favour Djokovic on this occasion as he is the more likely man to execute a high level of tennis throughout the match. There is more to ask of Federer to beat Djokovic, than there is for Djokovic to beat Federer. Depth is something Federer will have to improve in this matchup, otherwise he'll find himself on the back foot a lot of the time. He should also try to impose himself when returning Djokovic's second serve (something he did well against Del Potro in fairness). Having said this, Federer is more than capable of doing this and so I can see either man winning this match, but if I was a betting man - which I am - I would bet on Djokovic.
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