Monte Carlo Final: Djokovic vs. Nadal Preview and Prediction

It's the final we've been anticipating all week; Djokovic vs. Nadal. This is the one clay court Master's tournament that they did not face-off against each other last year. Djokovic defeated Nadal quite comfortably at Madrid and Rome last year - he beat him at his own game and played at an extremely high level. Can he repeat that level of tennis this year?

If he is to do that he will certainly have to raise game. He came through his semifinal today against Berdych in a third set and was up and down throughout the match; squandering a 4-2 lead in the first set and losing it 6-4. He looked agitated but managed to get through the match 4-6 6-3 6-2.

Nadal on the other hand has had an excellent tournament, as you'd expect. Any speculation of his withdrawal from the Miami semifinal a few weeks ago has been silenced. In particular he came through against an in-form Wawrinka who demolished Almagro earlier in fantastic fashion. Nadal came through against a stubborn Gilles Simon today, winning 6-3 6-4 and is certainly the favourite for tomorrow's final in my eyes.

I did however, say that last year in Rome where Djokovic ultimately swept the floor with Nadal. The question mark about this match is how Djokovic will play - we all know Nadal will play his usual clay court tennis; with measured aggression but willing to rally and work the point. I don't think Nadal will have much mental block against Djokovic here in Monte Carlo - he loves the court and stadium and will be hungry to win his eighth consecutive Monte Carlo crown. In order for Djokovic to win he'll have to shift into sixth gear and regain his trademark mental strength that he displayed last year. His desire is there but he has appeared frustrated on court, and is understandably still upset after his grandfather's death.

This match will be interesting. We all know what we're in for; long gruelling rallies and it should be a great match. I pick Nadal in straight sets. I don't see Djokovic being consistent enough and winning enough of the (multiple) long rallies to win this match.

Enjoy the final, it'll be a long one.

Indian Wells Day 10: Federer vs. Nadal Preview

It's that day again where we have a showdown between Federer and Nadal, and it is an oddly similar scenario to when they played in the Australian Open semifinal earlier this year. Federer will be coming into this match after playing sublimely against Del Potro in his previous match, whereas Nadal had a difficult encounter with Nalbandian and was very erroneous.

Federer-Nadal matches are very predictable. Nadal will always serve to Federer's backhand and will really pressure him on that side with his forehand, breaking it down and extracting the error. Federer on the other hand will try to keep the rallies short, take advantage of any forehands he gets and try to be very efficient on his own serve. Despite the dynamic of the match being predictable, the matches are always riveting because we all want to see who will execute their tactic better - whoever does will win the match. Sadly for Federer, its normally him who can't execute, but will this be the case this time?

The courts here at Indian Wells are a very slow hard court, probably the most favourable hard court for Nadal but Federer will still feel he can beat Nadal here. Federer-Nadal matches in the past are normally dictated by how Federer plays because he is the on who is open to inconsistency; if Federer plays well he should win, if not he won't. Whereas Nadal's game plan employs less risk and normally executes it very effectively.

Federer will be coming into this match with confidence after blitzing Del Potro and so one would think that Federer will probably play well against Nadal - but we've thought this in the past and been proved wrong. I certainly thought this at the Australian Open and predicted Federer to win, but this was hardly the case. Against Nadal a completely different question is asked of Federer, and that is a psychological one. We saw at the Australian Open that Federer became very erroneous even though Nadal had not increased the amount of pressure he was putting on him, and also at very key points in the match Federer just could not come up with the goods; either a shocking forehand miss or very often a missed return on break point. He doesn't miss to this extent against any other opponent on a consistent basis.

To win this match Federer will certainly have to serve well and on top of this he cannot afford to miss as much as he has in their past matches. And of course, he will have to be weary of Nadal's forehand pass and attempt to approach the net on Nadal's backhand as much as possible but this is made difficult as Federer's down the line forehand (natural approach shot) is to Nadal's forehand, so he'll have to get the balance right. Whoever can dominate with their forehand better will win. I'm too afraid to call this one as it's a difficult one, but I'd probably give the edge to Nadal despite the form Federer is in because Nadal raises his game against Federer, and Federer tends to do the opposite.

Novak Djokovic vs. Rafael Nadal Preview and Prediction

It's the Australian Open Final. The top two players in the world will do battle on one of the biggest stages in tennis, what more could we ask for? I think that the start of this match will be defining. I personally don't think Nadal played particularly brilliantly against Federer despite winning the match, and Djokovic was up and down in his match against Murray - I thought he was going to lose after the second set.

Novak has looked like he's been waning as this tournament has proceeded - especially against Ferrer, and so I can't really tell if he'll be able to 'outrally' Nadal like he has been doing. Then there's also the physical factor, we all know that Nadal physically will be fine - he always is - when he's on the court that is, but will Djokovic? He's had a tough five setter in the previous round, and I heard he's had a bit of a cold recently. So maybe he won't have the physical stamina to sustain consistent high level tennis in this match - but we've been fooled before. In Madrid last year there were some questions whether Djokovic will be fit enough to challenge Nadal. In the end he more than challenged him. And also but to a lesser extent, the scenario in the US Open last year where Novak had an epic with Federer, and then played phenomenally well in the final. It's this factor that makes this match a little difficult to predict, and hence why the first set will be defining. 

One thing of Novak's that looks better than ever is his mental side of the game. He's at another level mentally compared to any other player. There were some really nervy moments at the end of his semifinal where he seemed completely ice cold and pulled off one particularly brilliant forehand when down a break point at 5-5. Novak is playing at 80% compared to how he was last year but if Novak can consistently play like he did in the last set against Murray, I think this title will be his once again. He was working the ball well, a few misses here and there which we didn't see last year but all in all I'd say he was pretty consistent, he looked to be moving fine, and he lasted comfortably in the countless long rallies. 

Nadal played tidily against Federer, nothing incredible and so I think he'll have to improve in this match because Novak won't be as charitable as Federer was. Novak doesn't have any relative weaknesses that Nadal can take advantage of, unlike against Federer - his backhand is a definite relative weakness, and so Nadal can't rely on extracting errors as a consistent game plan. He'll have to move Novak around the court and hope he'll outlast him, and also take advantage of any opportunities to take the front foot. It seems pretty trivial - as that's what Nadal does to most players, but it wasn't working against Novak last year. Maybe this year it will be different. 

I can see this match going either way but I'll give the edge to Novak as he definitely has the mental edge over Nadal right now. As I've said, I think the first set will be defining but the first set is also more important for Nadal than it is for Djokovic. The one player Nadal seems to get nervous against is the Serb. Four sets in favour of the world number one. 

Federer vs. Nadal Preview and Prediction

It's one of those days again, when Federer and Nadal meet in a Slam - but only the second time that it's in a semifinal. The last time was at Roland Garros in 2004 where Nadal ultimately won his first of many Grand Slam Titles. Anyway, back to tomorrow's match.

Everyone knows what Nadal is going to come out and try; pummel Federer's backhand with his high bouncing forehands, eventually getting a short return which he can use to his advantage. Although this tactic is very predictable now, Nadal executes it perfectly and it is still very effective as there's not a lot Federer can do about it. In attempt to counter it he could try to keep the rallies short by trying to hit his backhand down the line, but Federer hasn't been able to do this very consistently in the past.

The key for Federer is to keep the rallies short and so will have to take advantage of any short balls Nadal gives him and try to work his way up the court, maybe ultimately finishing the point off at the net or extracting an error off Nadal's backhand side after pulling him wide. To do this Federer will have to be very confident in his groundstrokes as there's no room for complacency. Federer will have to get the balance between being aggressive AND playing percentage tennis correct.

Of course Federer must serve well to take the pressure off him in his service games as much as possible. I'm sure we'll see the wide slice serve a lot on the deuce side - he seemed to be experimenting a lot with it in their exhibition match at Abu Dhabi. Nadal normally stands very far back behind the baseline when returning serve, and Berdych was taking advantage of lots of short returns from Nadal in their last match. It was towards the end of the third set when Nadal started stepping into the court and being more aggressive on the return of serve, and Berdych's service games became more difficult. This is something we might see right from the start of the match.

That seems to be a lot things that Roger must do - but if anyone can do it, he can. He did this perfectly in London in November but I don't put much emphasis on that match as Nadal was not feeling 100% in that match, and a match over five sets is a different story. But if Federer serves well he is always very difficult to beat.

This will be the second time these two will do battle at the Australian Open. Federer came into their previous match as a hot favourite after completely pulling Roddick apart, whereas Nadal had that long marathon match with Verdasco which I'm sure we all remember. But it was Nadal who was victor then, not Federer and it is for this reason I don't really know who will win this match, but if I had to bet I'll go for Federer in 4.

Rakuten Japan Open: Nadal vs Raonic

Tomorrow's Order of Play for the Rakuten Japan Open is:

D Tursunov (RUS) vs [6] J Tipsarevic (SRB)

M Baghdatis (CYP) vs [2] A Murray (GBR)

[4] M Fish (USA) vs E Gulbis (LAT)

[WC] T Ito (JPN) vs B Tomic (AUS)

(provided by atpworldtour.com)

A couple of interesting matchups there; the explosive Tursonov comes up against the in-form Tipsarevic, Baghdatis vs Murray has been interesting in the past but I don't see Baghdatis bothering Murray that much this time, and Fish vs Gulbis; a 'popcorn match' as Darren Cahill would say i.e. it would be a great one to watch. They both play aggressive tennis - Gulbis can take the aggression (and unpredictability) a bit too far - and Fish is always a joy to watch anyway. I'm thinking straight sets to Fish, maybe a challenging first set, but really... who can predict how Gulbis will play, he goes from being sublime to shocking.

Anyway... my main topic for this blog post is the day after's match of Nadal vs Raonic. This was actually a matchup I was hoping to see in the early rounds of Wimbledon but Raonic unfortunately had to retire with a hip injury at an earlier stage in the tournament against Gilles Muller. Raonic had a close match yesterday against Yuichi Sugita (ultimately winning 6-7(4) 6-3 7-6(1)) and this could mean he may suffer from fatigue but I imagine he will have recovered as he will have had a day with no match to play prior to facing Nadal. Nadal on the other hand had a straight forward two set win.

Nadal and Raonic have only met once in the past and incidentally it was at the same tournament last year. Nadal ultimately prevailed 6-4 6-4 but this was before Raonic made his name and ascended by clinching his first tournament earlier this year at the SAP open.

What interests me about this matchup is that Raonic is a big and very physical character who has big groundstrokes and a huge serve which I’m sure you’ve all heard about. These are the types of opponent who would give anyone a hard time, but in particular Nadal. The types of players who can beat Nadal are the crafty angle abusers like Nalbandian and Davydenko and big guys who just outpower and hit through his high bouncing balls like Del Potro and Soderling, (and of course Novak Djokovic who just ‘outmoves’ him and matches him for consistency, but who else could possibly do that?). Milos Raonic clearly fits into the Del Potro/Soderling category.

What is questionable is Raonic’s fitness and motility, which clearly could improve, and I’m sure it will. But in the immediate future (i.e in less than 2 days) this could be a problem. If Raonic fails to take the upper hand in the rally early, Nadal will pretty much outmaneuver him and ultimately win the rally. To beat Nadal, Raonic needs to play aggressively but with consistency. This may sound like an oxymoron but this is what Federer has been doing for the past 7 years. By this I mean he needs to measure his shots and try and take Nadal’s time away and keep him moving, while he himself moves up the court. His serve will help him in his own service games and it also opens up another option; serving and volleying which would be helpful to incorporate into his service games. Some may say he should do this on the majority of his points but I disagree. We all know about Nadal’s potency on his return of serve and also of his anticipation. Serve and volley could be mixed in to his service games to keep Nadal on his toes and with a serve like Raonic’s there will be a decent number of easy volleys to put away. The key for Raonic in this match is to have a high first serve percentage.