Roland Garros Semifinal: Djokovic vs. Federer Preview + Prediction

This is one of the most difficult matches to call that I've previewed so far. Both men got the semifinals by coming back from the dead in their previous quarterfinal match. Federer got somewhat lucky to recover from two sets down against Del Potro where an injury gave the Argentine trouble after the second set, in a match where Federer struggled to find his rhythm (once again). Djokovic saved four match points in emphatic fashion against home-crowd favourite Tsonga - proving once again that his mental strength is on another level right now. Tsonga was understandably devastated after succumbing in the fifth set where his back was troubling him.

The Serb comes through saving match points against Tsonga.

Both Djokovic and Federer were up and down in their matches and both will have to become more consistent to be sure of reaching the final. Djokovic looked to be in very good shape for the first hour or so of his match and served pretty well throughout the whole match - hitting more aces than Tsonga despite both of them having very similar first serve percentages. Federer on the other hand, could have served a lot better. In the first two sets his percentage was about 50% and they weren't the most threatening of serves. When Federer plays the top guys, serving well is a must as he needs to be on the front foot in the rallies as soon as he possibly can - the longer the rally continues, the less likely he is to win it - and the serve is his best attribute to do this. If Federer doesn't serve at about 60%+ tomorrow, he will certainly have a hard time up against the greatest returner in the game. Neither can Federer afford to have a slow start. So far this tournament Federer has come out of the blocks pretty slowly, giving his opponent a sense of belief that they could do damage. Normally his best set is the first one - I believe that if tennis was a one-set sport, Federer would still be number one - so this is pretty unusual.

Just like I said for Federer, Djokovic can't afford to be up and down in the match because as soon as his level comes down a bit, Federer will be quick to take advantage. This is somewhat what happened in Federer's previous match. But if Djokovic plays at a consistent good level he will be very difficult to beat and will most likely win. He's a fantastic mover on all surfaces and will make Federer play a lot of balls, and I imagine he'll extract the error pretty often. Djokovic is also fantastic at turning defence into attack - and this is why he's had so much success against Nadal lately. This is another thing the Swiss will have to look out for. 

Relief for the Swiss as he succeeds to come back from the dead.

The two players have played each other more than enough times to know what to expect, and they will both know what they need to do to be victorious - but executing the game plan is another matter, especially with the variability of form they have shown so far this tournament - Federer in particular. For this reason I would favour Djokovic on this occasion as he is the more likely man to execute a high level of tennis throughout the match. There is more to ask of Federer to beat Djokovic, than there is for Djokovic to beat Federer. Depth is something Federer will have to improve in this matchup, otherwise he'll find himself on the back foot a lot of the time. He should also try to impose himself when returning Djokovic's second serve (something he did well against Del Potro in fairness). Having said this, Federer is more than capable of doing this and so I can see either man winning this match, but if I was a betting man - which I am - I would bet on Djokovic.

Join me on twitter for my thoughts throughout the match. 

Roland Garros Day 6: Order of Play + Preview + Predictions

After a pretty standard day in Paris - except for the marathon match between Mathieu and Isner - there are a good number of popcorn matches for us to look forward to tomorrow.

The order of play for Day 6 can be found here.

First of all lets cover the big names.

Federer vs. Mahut
The world number three comes up against Wimbledon marathon man; Nicolas Mahut. A man with a big serve who likes to rush to the net and keep the rallies short. I don't see this being effective against Federer - and especially not on a clay court. Federer has a very accurate passing shot and will have even more time on a clay court. Mahut won't have much look in on Federer's service games as it will be difficult for him to get to the net where he likes to win his points. He does have a handy serve though so maybe a couple of sets could be reasonably tight. I'd predict a fairly straight forward three-set win for the Swiss.

Djokovic vs. Devilder
Djokovic comes up against Frenchman Nicolas Devilder. He's a lefty but he's rather short so the lefty serve won't do much harm to a top returner like Novak. Devilder is a clay court specialist - in the sense that all his tournament victories on the Challenger court were on clay - but I doubt he's enough of a specialist to do the Serb any harm. Three simple sets for Djokovic.

Simon vs. Wawrinka

A battle between a defensive and an offensive player - these types of matches are always good. Wawrinka will always look to take the upper hand in a rally while Simon will be happy to sit back and keep the rally going, extracting the error. Both men have played five set matches in their Roland Garros campaign thus far, but Simon's one was more recent against the resurgent Brian Baker who made the Frenchman seem pretty ordinary for two sets. Wawrinka looked very convincing in the last two sets of his match against Andujar and I think he'll continue his good form in this match. I think this one could be very close indeed, but I think Wawrinka will manage it in four sets.

Del Potro vs. Cilic

This is the match of the day. Cilic seems to have worked himself back into some type of form - I thought he'd have cracked the top ten by now, two years ago. Both players have dangerous serves and love to attack with their follow up. Del Potro has been very pumped in his last couple of matches but has had some difficulty sustaining a good level of tennis in his matches. Cilic on the other hand breezed past former champion, Juan Carlos Ferrero but his forehand still has a tendency to disappear unexpectedly in a match. This is going to be a close one and I can see it going either way but I'm going to go for Del Potro in four - if it were to go to a fifth though, I think Cilic will steal it.

Enjoy!

Rome Masters Semifinal: Federer vs. Djokovic Preview and Prediction

The pick of the semifinals tomorrow is the meeting between the world's two top ranked players; Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer. Both players come into this match having made meaningful statements in their previous matches. Federer beat Seppi in under an hour and Djokovic rallied past Tsonga in a convincing two set victory. Federer especially seems to have come into the best form he's been in in the last four years. The shotmaking in his match against Ferrero was at times unbelievable. He's serving fantastically well too - it is his serve that I give most credit to for his increased form. When Federer serves well everything else falls into place.

I haven't watched enough of Djokovic this week to make a fair judgement of how he's playing - I've only seen the Djokovic-Monaco match and he was playing very well after a fantastic first set and a half performance from Monaco. I heard today's performance against Tsonga was very good, and the rest of his results have been fairly convincing so it can be assumed he's playing at a good level this week.

Roger and Novak have only met four times on a clay court; Federer winning three of those meetings. We all remember the most recent one at Roland Garros last year where Federer ended the Serb's fantastic run. Federer is playing even better now compared to how he was then, and so he will fancy his chances given his form. As always Federer's serve will be important, but it will be especially important in this match because of the quality of Djokovic's returning ability. Federer will aim to get about 65%+ 1st serves in and I do expect him to serve like that in tomorrow's match as his serve has been on song in the last few tournaments. His serve will give him the upper hand in the rally straight away in most of the points on his serve, and thus he will be very difficult to break. The unique thing about Federer is that when he plays well, the opponent has no say in the match - this is what he will hope to do to Novak; give him no say in the match by getting on top of the rallies very quickly.

Djokovic's movement and athleticism is of course exceptional and so he will be able to counter Federer's aggression every now and then. He will also try to take the upper hand in rallies if opportunity presents itself, and will probably go on to win those rallies. But Federer will aim to not give Djokovic these opportunities.

I think Federer will be the first aggressor in most of the rallies and will not offer too many of those opportunities for Djokovic to take charge in the rally. Given the form of both men, if Federer serves like he has been in this tournament so far, I expect him to win this match in straight sets.

Madrid Final: Federer vs. Berdych Preview and Prediction

It's been a week of very strange and unexpected upsets but Roger Federer finds himself in yet another Masters final at the end of it.

Here's the schedule.

Federer will take on Tomas Berdych who came through today against an in-form Juan Martin Del Potro. The Argentinian was playing fantastically well, especially in the first set where he found himself 5-3 up. But his first serve deserted him and Berdych - who was also playing very well - wormed his way back in and stole the set in a breaker. It was a very high quality and tightly contested second set which was taken by the Czech in another extremely close tiebreak. 

Federer on the other hand didn't have any major problems with Tipsarevic. It was very windy when the match started and Tipsarevic could not handle it as well as Federer could who stormed through the first set 6-2. Federer served fantastically well - and when his serve is on form, the rest of his game falls into place. He even returned fantastically well. He came through 6-3 in the second set. Tipsarevic could not pull out the performance that he did against Djokovic. Federer had the upper hand in almost all the rallies and Tipsarevic couldn't change the direction of the ball that well - something he is normally brilliant at.

I am anticipating a very high quality match as both guys seem to be playing with a lot of confidence. They both play with a lot of power and so I expect the rallies to be pretty short due to the restricted movement on this surface. It will be very difficult to neutralise rallies and so whoever gets the upper hand in the rally first will almost always win it. 

There's not really a lot to say about this match. Both men are aggressors and very strong behind their serve. They will defend their service games very well and so the set could come down to a tiebreak. Neither player can afford to be erratic or drop the ball short in the points of their service games because it will be difficult to regain the upper hand in the rally. The one who plays the big points better will be the one who will come through. Federer's not done a lot wrong since the match against Raonic and I think Berdych will find it harder to maintain a high level of tennis and so for these reasons I'm going to back Federer to win his 20th Masters title in three tight sets. 

Madrid Semifinal: Federer vs. Tipsarevic Preview and Prediction

Hmm blue clay... I find it very pleasing to look at, but numerous players have had their complaints about the introduction of this surface to the tour. Nadal and Djokovic have both come out saying that they will not be returning to Caja Magica if the clay is still blue - and Verdasco was clearly very upset with the surface early in the final set against Nadal when he seemed to be on his way out of the tournament. The prime problem with it is that the players are just having a hard time moving on it - Djokovic has slipped numerous times and in general, the players do not appear to the cover the court as well as they do. Court coverage is of course a vital factor to Nadal's and Djokovic's game, and would have been a key factor to their losses.

Two players who seem to have had less difficulty with the surface are Federer and Ferrer, in the sense that they don't seem to slip on the surface a lot - they do still seem to have a decreased court coverage, however. These two players did battle today and it was Federer who prevailed 6-4 6-4 in a match where Federer played very consistently and Ferrer's serve did especially let him down. Federer will face Tipsarevic who conquered Novak Djokovic. Tipsarevic seemed to have taken a leaf out of Federer's book in this match and really tried to take the ball early, reducing the time Djokovic had to prepare of his shot - which is exactly the right game plan against the Serb.

In this match, I expect both players to come out of the ranks quickly and hold their first few service games. Federer has been very good on serve so far this tournament, and has pulled out top serves when he has really needed them most - which is always a good sign. Ferrer barely had a look into Federer's service games today - he had just one break point which he failed to convert. And it is for this reason I think Tipsarevic will have a very difficult time trying to break the Swiss.

Having said that, Tipsarevic will come out like he did today, trying to really keep the rallies short and being very aggressive. The key to this match for both men will be getting the upper hand in the rally as soon as possible - and neither player will be able to afford to drop the ball short. Most of the time the serve will give the player the advantage in the rally and since movement will be more difficult due to the surface I think there could possibly be a tiebreak in the first set of this match.

All in all I think this match will come down to who plays the big points better. If it comes down to tiebreaks you have to always give the edge to Federer because his serve is a huge weapon and it tends to flourish in pressured situations. I think Federer will be victor in two close sets and meet Del Potro in the final!

Monte Carlo Final: Djokovic vs. Nadal Preview and Prediction

It's the final we've been anticipating all week; Djokovic vs. Nadal. This is the one clay court Master's tournament that they did not face-off against each other last year. Djokovic defeated Nadal quite comfortably at Madrid and Rome last year - he beat him at his own game and played at an extremely high level. Can he repeat that level of tennis this year?

If he is to do that he will certainly have to raise game. He came through his semifinal today against Berdych in a third set and was up and down throughout the match; squandering a 4-2 lead in the first set and losing it 6-4. He looked agitated but managed to get through the match 4-6 6-3 6-2.

Nadal on the other hand has had an excellent tournament, as you'd expect. Any speculation of his withdrawal from the Miami semifinal a few weeks ago has been silenced. In particular he came through against an in-form Wawrinka who demolished Almagro earlier in fantastic fashion. Nadal came through against a stubborn Gilles Simon today, winning 6-3 6-4 and is certainly the favourite for tomorrow's final in my eyes.

I did however, say that last year in Rome where Djokovic ultimately swept the floor with Nadal. The question mark about this match is how Djokovic will play - we all know Nadal will play his usual clay court tennis; with measured aggression but willing to rally and work the point. I don't think Nadal will have much mental block against Djokovic here in Monte Carlo - he loves the court and stadium and will be hungry to win his eighth consecutive Monte Carlo crown. In order for Djokovic to win he'll have to shift into sixth gear and regain his trademark mental strength that he displayed last year. His desire is there but he has appeared frustrated on court, and is understandably still upset after his grandfather's death.

This match will be interesting. We all know what we're in for; long gruelling rallies and it should be a great match. I pick Nadal in straight sets. I don't see Djokovic being consistent enough and winning enough of the (multiple) long rallies to win this match.

Enjoy the final, it'll be a long one.

Indian Wells Day 10: Federer vs. Nadal Preview

It's that day again where we have a showdown between Federer and Nadal, and it is an oddly similar scenario to when they played in the Australian Open semifinal earlier this year. Federer will be coming into this match after playing sublimely against Del Potro in his previous match, whereas Nadal had a difficult encounter with Nalbandian and was very erroneous.

Federer-Nadal matches are very predictable. Nadal will always serve to Federer's backhand and will really pressure him on that side with his forehand, breaking it down and extracting the error. Federer on the other hand will try to keep the rallies short, take advantage of any forehands he gets and try to be very efficient on his own serve. Despite the dynamic of the match being predictable, the matches are always riveting because we all want to see who will execute their tactic better - whoever does will win the match. Sadly for Federer, its normally him who can't execute, but will this be the case this time?

The courts here at Indian Wells are a very slow hard court, probably the most favourable hard court for Nadal but Federer will still feel he can beat Nadal here. Federer-Nadal matches in the past are normally dictated by how Federer plays because he is the on who is open to inconsistency; if Federer plays well he should win, if not he won't. Whereas Nadal's game plan employs less risk and normally executes it very effectively.

Federer will be coming into this match with confidence after blitzing Del Potro and so one would think that Federer will probably play well against Nadal - but we've thought this in the past and been proved wrong. I certainly thought this at the Australian Open and predicted Federer to win, but this was hardly the case. Against Nadal a completely different question is asked of Federer, and that is a psychological one. We saw at the Australian Open that Federer became very erroneous even though Nadal had not increased the amount of pressure he was putting on him, and also at very key points in the match Federer just could not come up with the goods; either a shocking forehand miss or very often a missed return on break point. He doesn't miss to this extent against any other opponent on a consistent basis.

To win this match Federer will certainly have to serve well and on top of this he cannot afford to miss as much as he has in their past matches. And of course, he will have to be weary of Nadal's forehand pass and attempt to approach the net on Nadal's backhand as much as possible but this is made difficult as Federer's down the line forehand (natural approach shot) is to Nadal's forehand, so he'll have to get the balance right. Whoever can dominate with their forehand better will win. I'm too afraid to call this one as it's a difficult one, but I'd probably give the edge to Nadal despite the form Federer is in because Nadal raises his game against Federer, and Federer tends to do the opposite.

Indian Wells Day 8: Djokovic vs. Almagro Preview

There are two men's tennis matches today - this one and Isner vs. Simon. Both matches will be worth watching and I'd probably favour Gilles Simon against John Isner as I think the Frenchman will be able to move Isner around very well and thus force Isner to pull the trigger too early, leading to errors. Anyway, my focus for this blogpost concerns Djokovic vs Almagro.

These two have met very few times - only twice. Their most recent encounter was at the start of Djokovic's transformation at the Australian Open last year which Djokovic won with ease 6-3 6-4 6-0. I don't think the Serb is currently playing as well he was back then but I would still expect him to come through this match.

Almagro beat Berdych very convincingly in his previous match 6-4 6-0 and this victory will certainly give him confidence which is something he can lack when playing the guys at the top of the rankings. Djokovic on the other hand had a match that seemed initially very simple but became a bit complex, beating Andujar 6-0 6-7 6-2 where he raised his game when he had to. Although Almagro will be coming into this match with confidence, I expect Djokovic to raise his game and in the end offer too much for Almagro to handle. Almagro likes to be the aggressor but Djokovic's movement will make him able to neutralise rallies incredibly well and thus for Almagro to play Djokovic off the court will be very difficult. It is mainly for this reason I think Djokovic will come through in straight sets. Almagro could sneak one just like Andujar did, and for this to happen he will have to serve and follow-up very well, trying to play measured aggressive tennis whilst keeping the rallies short.

Indian Wells Day 6: Federer vs. Raonic Preview

There are quite a few popcorn matches today - like Del Potro vs. Verdasco which is going on right now - but I thought today I'd do a preview to probably the most anticipated match of the day; Federer vs. Raonic. It already promises to be a brilliant match but the fact that these two have never played each other before makes it even more exciting.

We've all heard about the danger that Raonic provides for anyone he plays against, mostly because of his missile of a serve but also his follow up - his powerful groundstrokes and his potent net game. All in all he plays really good aggressive tennis and breaking his serve could prove quite difficult.

However, Federer has not had much difficulty with players of this type in the past. We have seen him completely dominate Roddick time after time - Federer seems to like the ball coming onto him. What he doesn't like are the more defensive players like Simon or Murray (in the past) and of course Nadal - but there's a lot more to Nadal's game than just defence.

Having said this, I don't think this match will be as straight forward as a standard Federer-Roddick match in the past. Raonic will certainly be difficult to break for obvious reasons and it is this factor that will make this match interesting. I think we'll see a very close first set - maybe a tie break - but in the end I feel Federer will squeeze through it. This match could go three sets but if I had to bet I'd say Federer in straights as he's on a good run right now, having played brilliantly towards the conclusion of Dubai.

Indian Wells Day 5: Popcorn Matches of the Day

There are some decent matches to watch today despite it being very early in the tournament. Here are my views:

Djokovic vs. Anderson

The most anticipated match of the day as the world number one will be in action but probably not the most competitive one. Anderson has a top quality serve and a good follow up forehand but Djokovic possesses a brilliant return and probably the best movement in the game. So all in all I think we'll see a straight set victory for the Serb.

Roddick vs. Berdych

Probably the most competitive match of the day - both men possess weapons and both men took three sets to win their previous match. Roddick's first round match was a struggle but had worked his return into a good groove towards the end of the match - it will be interesting to see whether he can keep this up against Berdych's serve. This match could go to three sets but in the end I think we shall see Berdych prevail.

Wawrinka vs Simon

I haven't seen either of these two play in Indian Wells so far but I am aware that both came through very close and long three setters in their previous matches. Simon is extremely consistent and a brilliant mover and so I think this match will come down to how Wawrinka plays and to whether or not he can sustain a high level of aggressive tennis throughout the match. I think he will - I'll say Wawrinka in straights.

Tweet me your thoughts! 

Preview: Indian Wells - Draw Summary

The first Masters 1000 tournament of the year is almost here. This year Indian Wells fields 48 out of the world's top 50 - it promises to be a good tournament. It has been made more interesting for spectators by the fact that this will be Rafael Nadal's return to tour after the epic Australian Open final.

The draw was made yesterday, the rest of the post will summarise it but for your own examination you can find it here: http://www.atpworldtour.com/posting/2012/404/mds.pdf

First things first, Federer and Nadal are in the same half and Djokovic and Murray are in the same half.

I'll start of with Djokovic's quarter. Novak will face a qualifier (not specified yet) for his first match and if he were to win he could face Phillipp Kohlschreiber or the big-serving Kevin Anderson who will not be any easy encounter. Against big servers you must be extra-efficient on your own service games because if you were to be broken, it could be difficult to break back. Having said this I don't expect Djokovic to have much of a problem with Anderson. After this he could face Richard Gasquet who has worked himself into some decent form lately. In the quarterfinal the big names he could face are Berdych, Almagro or Roddick.

Nadal's first match will be either Alejandro Falla or the tricky Florian Mayer. The only names that really stand out majorly in his quarter are Dolgopolov - whom he could meet in the 3rd round - Lopez, Cilic and Tsonga. Tsonga is always capable of a major upset, but all in all I'd say this is the easiest draw of the four.

The first thing that caught my eye when looking at Federer's draw is the potential 3rd round encounter between him and Raonic who is working himself back into form this year. Raonic is of course a big server and has some very explosive groundstrokes, and so you would expect him to keep Federer on his toes. After this he could Monfils or Melzer, neither of which I would expect to do Federer much harm if they were to meet. In the quarterfinal Federer could face either of the two finalists last weekend in Acapulco: Verdasco or Ferrer.

Murray's first match doesn't appear to be very challenging either; he will play one of Garcia-Lopez and Machado. After this he could play Troicki or Ryan Harrison who managed to get a set off Murray in Melbourne about 6 weeks ago. If a repeat of this match was set it would certainly be worth a watch, but looking at the form Murray worked himself into in Dubai (despite being slightly disappointing in the final) you would not expect an upset. In his next match he could play Wawrinka who has given Murray a few troubles in the past - this match would certainly be a test for the Brit. In the quarterfinal he could face Isner or Fish who both showed some good form in their Davis Cup ties against Switzerland.

Who do I expect to win this tournament? What are the 'popcorn matches'? You'll have to find out in my following posts!

Novak Djokovic vs. Rafael Nadal Preview and Prediction

It's the Australian Open Final. The top two players in the world will do battle on one of the biggest stages in tennis, what more could we ask for? I think that the start of this match will be defining. I personally don't think Nadal played particularly brilliantly against Federer despite winning the match, and Djokovic was up and down in his match against Murray - I thought he was going to lose after the second set.

Novak has looked like he's been waning as this tournament has proceeded - especially against Ferrer, and so I can't really tell if he'll be able to 'outrally' Nadal like he has been doing. Then there's also the physical factor, we all know that Nadal physically will be fine - he always is - when he's on the court that is, but will Djokovic? He's had a tough five setter in the previous round, and I heard he's had a bit of a cold recently. So maybe he won't have the physical stamina to sustain consistent high level tennis in this match - but we've been fooled before. In Madrid last year there were some questions whether Djokovic will be fit enough to challenge Nadal. In the end he more than challenged him. And also but to a lesser extent, the scenario in the US Open last year where Novak had an epic with Federer, and then played phenomenally well in the final. It's this factor that makes this match a little difficult to predict, and hence why the first set will be defining. 

One thing of Novak's that looks better than ever is his mental side of the game. He's at another level mentally compared to any other player. There were some really nervy moments at the end of his semifinal where he seemed completely ice cold and pulled off one particularly brilliant forehand when down a break point at 5-5. Novak is playing at 80% compared to how he was last year but if Novak can consistently play like he did in the last set against Murray, I think this title will be his once again. He was working the ball well, a few misses here and there which we didn't see last year but all in all I'd say he was pretty consistent, he looked to be moving fine, and he lasted comfortably in the countless long rallies. 

Nadal played tidily against Federer, nothing incredible and so I think he'll have to improve in this match because Novak won't be as charitable as Federer was. Novak doesn't have any relative weaknesses that Nadal can take advantage of, unlike against Federer - his backhand is a definite relative weakness, and so Nadal can't rely on extracting errors as a consistent game plan. He'll have to move Novak around the court and hope he'll outlast him, and also take advantage of any opportunities to take the front foot. It seems pretty trivial - as that's what Nadal does to most players, but it wasn't working against Novak last year. Maybe this year it will be different. 

I can see this match going either way but I'll give the edge to Novak as he definitely has the mental edge over Nadal right now. As I've said, I think the first set will be defining but the first set is also more important for Nadal than it is for Djokovic. The one player Nadal seems to get nervous against is the Serb. Four sets in favour of the world number one. 

Federer vs. Nadal Preview and Prediction

It's one of those days again, when Federer and Nadal meet in a Slam - but only the second time that it's in a semifinal. The last time was at Roland Garros in 2004 where Nadal ultimately won his first of many Grand Slam Titles. Anyway, back to tomorrow's match.

Everyone knows what Nadal is going to come out and try; pummel Federer's backhand with his high bouncing forehands, eventually getting a short return which he can use to his advantage. Although this tactic is very predictable now, Nadal executes it perfectly and it is still very effective as there's not a lot Federer can do about it. In attempt to counter it he could try to keep the rallies short by trying to hit his backhand down the line, but Federer hasn't been able to do this very consistently in the past.

The key for Federer is to keep the rallies short and so will have to take advantage of any short balls Nadal gives him and try to work his way up the court, maybe ultimately finishing the point off at the net or extracting an error off Nadal's backhand side after pulling him wide. To do this Federer will have to be very confident in his groundstrokes as there's no room for complacency. Federer will have to get the balance between being aggressive AND playing percentage tennis correct.

Of course Federer must serve well to take the pressure off him in his service games as much as possible. I'm sure we'll see the wide slice serve a lot on the deuce side - he seemed to be experimenting a lot with it in their exhibition match at Abu Dhabi. Nadal normally stands very far back behind the baseline when returning serve, and Berdych was taking advantage of lots of short returns from Nadal in their last match. It was towards the end of the third set when Nadal started stepping into the court and being more aggressive on the return of serve, and Berdych's service games became more difficult. This is something we might see right from the start of the match.

That seems to be a lot things that Roger must do - but if anyone can do it, he can. He did this perfectly in London in November but I don't put much emphasis on that match as Nadal was not feeling 100% in that match, and a match over five sets is a different story. But if Federer serves well he is always very difficult to beat.

This will be the second time these two will do battle at the Australian Open. Federer came into their previous match as a hot favourite after completely pulling Roddick apart, whereas Nadal had that long marathon match with Verdasco which I'm sure we all remember. But it was Nadal who was victor then, not Federer and it is for this reason I don't really know who will win this match, but if I had to bet I'll go for Federer in 4.

Djokovic vs Hewitt Preview and Prediction

The current world number #1 and a former world #1 do battle on Rod Laver Arena in the last match of the day. Hewitt has already pulled off some good victories this tournament and seems to be somewhat revived. Djokovic has only lost 10 games so far this tournament and so is clearly in good form, although I'm sure you already knew that. If Hewitt is going to do any damage in this match he's going to have to play exceptionally well.

 Hewitt is primarily a counter puncher and forces his opponent into long rallies, winning a decent proportion of them. But how many people can consistently win long rallies against Djokovic in this type of form? No one. Not even Nadal could manage to do it consistently in their many meetings during last season. So Plan A is not going to work for Hewitt. Although Hewitt is a good mover on the court, Djokovic is the best mover in the game right now and on top of this Djokovic possesses a lot more power than his opponent. Nor does Hewitt have a dangerous serve to protect his own service games with.

 You've probably already realised that I can only see one winner in this match. Djokovic in three.

Federer vs. Tomic Preview and Prediction

In seven hours or so Roger Federer and Australian young-gun Bernard Tomic will take to court. Tomic has pulled off some brilliant victories already in this tournament, coming back from two sets down against Verdasco and beating his nemesis Dolgopolov in five sets. Federer has looked pretty solid, as ever, and seems to be serving very well. For this reason, Tomic will find it very difficult to break Federer and so will have to be very solid on his own serve to remain competitive. First serve percentage is very important for Tomic.

I've heard that Federer was Tomic's boyhood idol (wow, that makes Federer seem old) and so there's the small possibility that the situation may overcome him, but I doubt it as Tomic hasn't appeared to be nervous or shifty in any of his long and close matches on one of the biggest stages in tennis. He's also played Federer once before in the Davis Cup - another big stage to compete on - and still managed to get one set off Federer.

Assuming both players come out and play like they have been so far in the tournament, I don't think Tomic will be able to pull off the upset in this match because I think Federer will just have too much game for him. He might be able to sneak a set but to get more than that he would have to keep a high level. Furthermore, Tomic has played a lot of tennis already in this tournament and Federer the opposite.

I'll go for Federer in three.

Popcorn Matches of the Day

First things first, Federer plays Beck and Nadal plays Haas. Both matches are worth watching but I can't see either of the underdogs doing any damage.

(Interesting fact, Federer plays on the Hisense Arena after 7 years of always playing on the Rod Laver Arena.) Anyway...

More important are the popcorn matches of the day:

Querrey vs. Tomic
Querrey seems to be working himself back into form and of course has a serve that everyone is weary of. It'll be interesting to see how the crowd favourite will handle that serve. My guess is Tomic in 4.

Isner vs. Nalbandian
Both men will be very well rested after straightforward victories in their first round matches. It's always interesting when a brilliant server comes up against a brilliant returner. I pick Isner in 4 as Nalbandian's fitness is questionable. But you never know, David seems to love competing in five-set thrillers.

Wawrinka vs. Baghdatis
Two aggressive baseliners do battle. Wawrinka is actually my dark horse in this tournament - I think he'll get to the quarters - I'll go for a Wawrinka win.

Dimitrov vs. Almagro
There has been a lot of expectation on the Federer-esque Dimitrov's shoulders after his convincing junior career, but hasn't made his conversion to the men's game yet. He has showed hints over the past couple of years but is yet to break into the top 50 and proceed past the second round in a Slam. Maybe his time has come? You never know - I for one would love to see him win - but I think Almagro will have him.

Have fun watching a tasty day of tennis!

Preview: Australian Open - Draw Summary and Predictions

The Australian Open draw came out recently and having examined it, this is my 'preview' for the first Slam of the year.

First things first, Federer and Nadal are in the same half and Djokovic and Murray are in the same half. I'm sure that Federer won't be thinking as far as the semifinals yet, but I reckon this is a preferable draw for him (only slightly preferable). Although Federer seems to have Djokovic's 'number' in general, Nadal was not playing especially well in his last match against Monfils at Doha and also Federer would have gained a lot of confidence against Nadal when he destroyed him in London. Having said this, once Nadal gets into the second week of a Slam he tends to play brilliantly. Federer went into the final against Nadal here 3 years ago as favourite, and yet came out second best against Nadal once again.

Nadal's quarter isn't that difficult until the quarters where he's set to meet Berdych but even then I wouldn't expect Nadal to have that much difficulty in that match if it was to happen. In his third match he could play the veteran Ivan Ljubicic which could be tricky, but unless Nadal's out of sorts (which he can be early on in a Slam) I doubt he'll lose that one. After that match he may play either Nalbandian or Isner. We all know the threat that Nalbandian poses to Nadal, but the question mark surrounding Nalbandian is his fitness. Can Nalbandian play consistently well in a 5 set match against Nadal? Doubt it. When your opponent has got a serve like Isner, the match will always be difficult. If Nadal were to play Isner it'll be a difficult match for him, and he'll have to be prepared to play tie breaker sets. Maybe Isner could sneak a set, maybe even two, but I don't think he'll be able to pull a victory out of the bag as I don't think he'll be able to sustain his play for more than three sets, and I'm sure Nadal will win at least one set. In his quarter's he will probably play Berdych, Wawrinka or Almagro. I've got a feeling Wawrinka will make a run to the quarters, and I reckon there's a chance he may beat Nadal, but Nadal is definitely my firm favourite for this part of the draw.

Before I continue, I don't think Federer's back will be a problem at all - I think he pulled out of Doha because he was being over cautious and didn't want to risk the Australian Open which he was absolutely right to do. Federer's first tricky match could be Karlovic or Melzer in the third round. I'd place my bets on my Melzer to be the one who plays Federer but if it was to be Karlovic, Federer will have to be solid on serve, can't afford to drop serve against a server like Karlovic. If he was to play Melzer, I'd expect a straight set win, I don't think Melzer has the power or any major weapons that can bother Federer. He's a great all round player who I love to watch, just lacks weapons. After that he could play any of Verdasco, Tomic or Dolgopolov - they all have major weapons (Verdasco's forehand is incredible) but I doubt they can sustain a performance to win three sets against Federer. In the quarters he'll probably play Fish or Del Potro, both of whom I have no idea what to expect, but it would have to be quite a performance to beat Federer in the quarters - you never know, but I don't see a Federer loss somehow. Federer my definite favourite for this section of the draw.

Djokovic's draw appears to be the easiest of the lot. His first tricky match could be against rising talent Milos Raonic in the fourth round. Djokovic will be on his toes in that match. Raonic has got a huge serve and a brilliant aggressive game, but Djokovic has got a brilliant return and is the best mover in the game. Milos may sneak a set, but it would surprise me if he won. In his quarterfinal he could play tenacious David Ferrer who made a sly run to the semis last year. Djokovic can't afford to play badly against Ferrer, but is certainly the clear favourite in this quarter.

Murray's quarter is the interesting one, his first tricky match will be his first match of the tournament! He plays young American, Ryan Harrison. I've not seen much of Harrison, but judging from what I have seen, he may get a set but probably not the match. Murray's late results in Brisbane were brilliant, despite a rocky start. After that he may play Ernests Gulbis who is clearly very talented and potentially has a huge game, but still (unfortunately) lacks any consistency. In the next match he could play Monfils who was in astonishing form against Nadal. I've never seen him play better. If he could replicate that against Murray, a victory for the Frenchman wouldn't surprise me. That's a big ask for Monfils - especially over 5 sets, but you never know. Assuming Murray goes through, he could then face in-form Tsonga who is always difficult to play. Murray has by far the most difficult quarter and I can see any of Tsonga, Monfils and Murray going through. If i had to bet who will make it to the quarters I'd bet on Murray, but you'd have to hold me at gunpoint to make that bet!

I've got a feeling that this will be the year that Murray will get his first elusive Grand Slam title - possibly at this tournament, but I doubt it. He's got a very tricky draw and may have to spend a lot of extra energy in those matches which may take their total. Whether Nadal's playing well or not before a Slam, you can never count him out once it comes to the Slam. I'm confident he'll get to at least the semis - but I think Federer will have him. Having said this, a Nadal win wouldn't surprise me, it's difficult to predict how Roger will play against Nadal. I think Federer will make the final and once he's in a final he's always in with a very good chance. Overall in this tournament I'd place Djokovic favourite for a number reasons. He'll be very confident, and hungry to get his third Aussie title, always plays well here, and every player will fear playing him after his incredible season last year. The crowd in Australia tend to love him as well but that's a minor point. I'd give the edge to Djokovic 55%-45% in that match. Federer will have to serve well if that is to be the match for the championship.

Doha Hosts an All-French Final

Wait, what? Federer and Nadal out?

Earlier today Roger Federer withdrew from his semifinal match against Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in Doha because of a back injury which he says was aggravated during his match against the wildcard Zemlja. It came as a surprise but I'm sure this wasn't a decision Federer made easily, being the defending champion. But all in all I deem it to be a good decision as it is the Australian Open that is important - especially for Federer. He's probably being cautious - rightfully so, and I'm sure he'll be back fit and ready for the upcoming Slam. On a side note this is only the second time Federer has withdrawn from a tournament in his whole career.

As a result Tsonga goes through to tomorrow's final without having to hit a ball, and he is set to play the man of the moment; Gael Monfils who conquered Nadal 6-3 6-4 a couple of hours ago. I only managed to catch the last 4 games of the match when Monfils was down with Nadal serving at *4-2. He won the next 4 games. In crushing fashion too, he was truly playing great. Hitting with huge power, moving incredibly and consistently (the key for Monfils) and I gather that's how he played in the first set. If you missed the match definitely try to catch the highlights, they're worth watching just for the penultimate point that set Monfils up with a match point. His performance in the last 4 games reminded me of Nadal's defeat at the 2009 US Open against Del Potro. But I think its worth mentioning that Nadal didn't seem to be moving brilliantly but still the credit goes to Monfils who played a blinder. Not to worry for Nadal though, I think he'll be ready for the Australian Open and its good he's got some matches under his belt - and as we all know, once Nadal's through to the second week of a Slam he's incredibly difficult to beat - even if he did struggle through the first week.

Tomorrow's final will be interesting and very entertaining I'm sure. They both are excellent when they're hot and Monfils was certainly hot today, and they both have big serves. Tsonga has more variety and finesse around the net but Monfils is the superior mover. They both can be 'up and down' in matches so I think the player who will prevail will be the one who will play more steadily. Tsonga should look to come to the net as Monfils' lateral movement is brilliant and hustles very well. It's a difficult matchup to predict and their head to head (2-1 to Tsonga doesn't appear to be significant) but I'd give the edge to Tsonga because I feel he'd be more difficult to break as his serve is huge and more consistent than Monfils'. But to be honest with you, I don't know.

Rakuten Japan Open: Nadal vs Raonic

Tomorrow's Order of Play for the Rakuten Japan Open is:

D Tursunov (RUS) vs [6] J Tipsarevic (SRB)

M Baghdatis (CYP) vs [2] A Murray (GBR)

[4] M Fish (USA) vs E Gulbis (LAT)

[WC] T Ito (JPN) vs B Tomic (AUS)

(provided by atpworldtour.com)

A couple of interesting matchups there; the explosive Tursonov comes up against the in-form Tipsarevic, Baghdatis vs Murray has been interesting in the past but I don't see Baghdatis bothering Murray that much this time, and Fish vs Gulbis; a 'popcorn match' as Darren Cahill would say i.e. it would be a great one to watch. They both play aggressive tennis - Gulbis can take the aggression (and unpredictability) a bit too far - and Fish is always a joy to watch anyway. I'm thinking straight sets to Fish, maybe a challenging first set, but really... who can predict how Gulbis will play, he goes from being sublime to shocking.

Anyway... my main topic for this blog post is the day after's match of Nadal vs Raonic. This was actually a matchup I was hoping to see in the early rounds of Wimbledon but Raonic unfortunately had to retire with a hip injury at an earlier stage in the tournament against Gilles Muller. Raonic had a close match yesterday against Yuichi Sugita (ultimately winning 6-7(4) 6-3 7-6(1)) and this could mean he may suffer from fatigue but I imagine he will have recovered as he will have had a day with no match to play prior to facing Nadal. Nadal on the other hand had a straight forward two set win.

Nadal and Raonic have only met once in the past and incidentally it was at the same tournament last year. Nadal ultimately prevailed 6-4 6-4 but this was before Raonic made his name and ascended by clinching his first tournament earlier this year at the SAP open.

What interests me about this matchup is that Raonic is a big and very physical character who has big groundstrokes and a huge serve which I’m sure you’ve all heard about. These are the types of opponent who would give anyone a hard time, but in particular Nadal. The types of players who can beat Nadal are the crafty angle abusers like Nalbandian and Davydenko and big guys who just outpower and hit through his high bouncing balls like Del Potro and Soderling, (and of course Novak Djokovic who just ‘outmoves’ him and matches him for consistency, but who else could possibly do that?). Milos Raonic clearly fits into the Del Potro/Soderling category.

What is questionable is Raonic’s fitness and motility, which clearly could improve, and I’m sure it will. But in the immediate future (i.e in less than 2 days) this could be a problem. If Raonic fails to take the upper hand in the rally early, Nadal will pretty much outmaneuver him and ultimately win the rally. To beat Nadal, Raonic needs to play aggressively but with consistency. This may sound like an oxymoron but this is what Federer has been doing for the past 7 years. By this I mean he needs to measure his shots and try and take Nadal’s time away and keep him moving, while he himself moves up the court. His serve will help him in his own service games and it also opens up another option; serving and volleying which would be helpful to incorporate into his service games. Some may say he should do this on the majority of his points but I disagree. We all know about Nadal’s potency on his return of serve and also of his anticipation. Serve and volley could be mixed in to his service games to keep Nadal on his toes and with a serve like Raonic’s there will be a decent number of easy volleys to put away. The key for Raonic in this match is to have a high first serve percentage.