Rakuten Japan Open: Nadal vs Raonic

Tomorrow's Order of Play for the Rakuten Japan Open is:

D Tursunov (RUS) vs [6] J Tipsarevic (SRB)

M Baghdatis (CYP) vs [2] A Murray (GBR)

[4] M Fish (USA) vs E Gulbis (LAT)

[WC] T Ito (JPN) vs B Tomic (AUS)

(provided by atpworldtour.com)

A couple of interesting matchups there; the explosive Tursonov comes up against the in-form Tipsarevic, Baghdatis vs Murray has been interesting in the past but I don't see Baghdatis bothering Murray that much this time, and Fish vs Gulbis; a 'popcorn match' as Darren Cahill would say i.e. it would be a great one to watch. They both play aggressive tennis - Gulbis can take the aggression (and unpredictability) a bit too far - and Fish is always a joy to watch anyway. I'm thinking straight sets to Fish, maybe a challenging first set, but really... who can predict how Gulbis will play, he goes from being sublime to shocking.

Anyway... my main topic for this blog post is the day after's match of Nadal vs Raonic. This was actually a matchup I was hoping to see in the early rounds of Wimbledon but Raonic unfortunately had to retire with a hip injury at an earlier stage in the tournament against Gilles Muller. Raonic had a close match yesterday against Yuichi Sugita (ultimately winning 6-7(4) 6-3 7-6(1)) and this could mean he may suffer from fatigue but I imagine he will have recovered as he will have had a day with no match to play prior to facing Nadal. Nadal on the other hand had a straight forward two set win.

Nadal and Raonic have only met once in the past and incidentally it was at the same tournament last year. Nadal ultimately prevailed 6-4 6-4 but this was before Raonic made his name and ascended by clinching his first tournament earlier this year at the SAP open.

What interests me about this matchup is that Raonic is a big and very physical character who has big groundstrokes and a huge serve which I’m sure you’ve all heard about. These are the types of opponent who would give anyone a hard time, but in particular Nadal. The types of players who can beat Nadal are the crafty angle abusers like Nalbandian and Davydenko and big guys who just outpower and hit through his high bouncing balls like Del Potro and Soderling, (and of course Novak Djokovic who just ‘outmoves’ him and matches him for consistency, but who else could possibly do that?). Milos Raonic clearly fits into the Del Potro/Soderling category.

What is questionable is Raonic’s fitness and motility, which clearly could improve, and I’m sure it will. But in the immediate future (i.e in less than 2 days) this could be a problem. If Raonic fails to take the upper hand in the rally early, Nadal will pretty much outmaneuver him and ultimately win the rally. To beat Nadal, Raonic needs to play aggressively but with consistency. This may sound like an oxymoron but this is what Federer has been doing for the past 7 years. By this I mean he needs to measure his shots and try and take Nadal’s time away and keep him moving, while he himself moves up the court. His serve will help him in his own service games and it also opens up another option; serving and volleying which would be helpful to incorporate into his service games. Some may say he should do this on the majority of his points but I disagree. We all know about Nadal’s potency on his return of serve and also of his anticipation. Serve and volley could be mixed in to his service games to keep Nadal on his toes and with a serve like Raonic’s there will be a decent number of easy volleys to put away. The key for Raonic in this match is to have a high first serve percentage.

Djokovic, why did it all go so right?

As I'm sure you know, Novak Djokovic has had one of the best years in men's open era tennis, if not the very best (other nominees for this award would be Roger Federer and John McEnroe). This year has seen him win five Masters 1000 titles, regain the Australian Open and conquer Wimbledon and the US Open both for the first time. In contrast, last year Djokovic did not even get to a final of a Masters 1000 tournament – in fact, his only tournament victories were in Dubai and Beijing. So, what was it that caused this sudden turnaround in his results?

Apart from reaching the final of the US Open – ultimately to lose to Rafael Nadal in four sets despite playing exceptionally for the first two sets – Djokovic’s most notable achievement was winning the highly entertaining final of the Davis Cup with Serbia against France. Maybe somewhat surprisingly, winning the Davis Cup has been the stimulus to greatly improved form in the past; the most recent example being Fernando Verdasco who won the Davis Cup at the end of 2008 with Spain and went on to break into the top ten with a semifinal run at the Australian Open about two months later, eventually to lose to Nadal in an epic five-setter that I’m sure we’ll all remember for a long time to come. But what is behind the correlation between Davis Cup victory and improved form?

By no means am I saying the Davis Cup was the sole reason for Djokovic’s improved performance but I think it was a definite contributor. What is clear is that Djokovic has displayed superior mental toughness this year, whereas in the past his temperament has been questionable. Consequently I suggest that performing and winning under huge pressure in the final of the Davis Cup possibly gave him the immense confidence that he has displayed this year. Or maybe achieving for his country gave him the focus and desire to want to achieve even more. Whatever it was, it certainly worked.

Last year at Wimbledon I was able to watch Djokovic hit at the practice courts and a substantial part of his session was playing football tennis with his team in a very laid back fashion (see video below). I don’t think this would be the case anymore. This year has seen him become the best mover on the court, a title that formerly belonged to Rafael Nadal, and this must be down to more work and hours spent on fitness and of course his famous gluten-free diet. Maybe his increased focus and motivation led him to doing this.

Without doubt he is the deserving World Number One, the way he has pulled Nadal apart this year has been astonishing, and to pull out another amazing win against Roger Federer in the semifinals of the US Open is quite astounding. If someone had offered me a bet that Djokovic would save match points and beat Federer in two consecutive US Open semifinals, I wouldn’t have hesitated to bet against it. But the question is, how long can he sustain this exceptional form? How many more slams will he win? I wouldn’t be surprised if he was the dominant force for the next couple of years. Tweet