Thursday 31 May 2012

Roland Garros Day 6: Order of Play + Preview + Predictions

After a pretty standard day in Paris - except for the marathon match between Mathieu and Isner - there are a good number of popcorn matches for us to look forward to tomorrow.

The order of play for Day 6 can be found here.

First of all lets cover the big names.

Federer vs. Mahut
The world number three comes up against Wimbledon marathon man; Nicolas Mahut. A man with a big serve who likes to rush to the net and keep the rallies short. I don't see this being effective against Federer - and especially not on a clay court. Federer has a very accurate passing shot and will have even more time on a clay court. Mahut won't have much look in on Federer's service games as it will be difficult for him to get to the net where he likes to win his points. He does have a handy serve though so maybe a couple of sets could be reasonably tight. I'd predict a fairly straight forward three-set win for the Swiss.

Djokovic vs. Devilder
Djokovic comes up against Frenchman Nicolas Devilder. He's a lefty but he's rather short so the lefty serve won't do much harm to a top returner like Novak. Devilder is a clay court specialist - in the sense that all his tournament victories on the Challenger court were on clay - but I doubt he's enough of a specialist to do the Serb any harm. Three simple sets for Djokovic.


Simon vs. Wawrinka
A battle between a defensive and an offensive player - these types of matches are always good. Wawrinka will always look to take the upper hand in a rally while Simon will be happy to sit back and keep the rally going, extracting the error. Both men have played five set matches in their Roland Garros campaign thus far, but Simon's one was more recent against the resurgent Brian Baker who made the Frenchman seem pretty ordinary for two sets. Wawrinka looked very convincing in the last two sets of his match against Andujar and I think he'll continue his good form in this match. I think this one could be very close indeed, but I think Wawrinka will manage it in four sets.




Del Potro vs. Cilic
This is the match of the day. Cilic seems to have worked himself back into some type of form - I thought he'd have cracked the top ten by now, two years ago. Both players have dangerous serves and love to attack with their follow up. Del Potro has been very pumped in his last couple of matches but has had some difficulty sustaining a good level of tennis in his matches. Cilic on the other hand breezed past former champion, Juan Carlos Ferrero but his forehand still has a tendency to disappear unexpectedly in a match. This is going to be a close one and I can see it going either way but I'm going to go for Del Potro in four - if it were to go to a fifth though, I think Cilic will steal it.


Enjoy!

Friday 18 May 2012

Rome Masters Semifinal: Federer vs. Djokovic Preview and Prediction

The pick of the semifinals tomorrow is the meeting between the world's two top ranked players; Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer. Both players come into this match having made meaningful statements in their previous matches. Federer beat Seppi in under an hour and Djokovic rallied past Tsonga in a convincing two set victory. Federer especially seems to have come into the best form he's been in in the last four years. The shotmaking in his match against Ferrero was at times unbelievable. He's serving fantastically well too - it is his serve that I give most credit to for his increased form. When Federer serves well everything else falls into place.

I haven't watched enough of Djokovic this week to make a fair judgement of how he's playing - I've only seen the Djokovic-Monaco match and he was playing very well after a fantastic first set and a half performance from Monaco. I heard today's performance against Tsonga was very good, and the rest of his results have been fairly convincing so it can be assumed he's playing at a good level this week.


Roger and Novak have only met four times on a clay court; Federer winning three of those meetings. We all remember the most recent one at Roland Garros last year where Federer ended the Serb's fantastic run. Federer is playing even better now compared to how he was then, and so he will fancy his chances given his form. As always Federer's serve will be important, but it will be especially important in this match because of the quality of Djokovic's returning ability. Federer will aim to get about 65%+ 1st serves in and I do expect him to serve like that in tomorrow's match as his serve has been on song in the last few tournaments. His serve will give him the upper hand in the rally straight away in most of the points on his serve, and thus he will be very difficult to break. The unique thing about Federer is that when he plays well, the opponent has no say in the match - this is what he will hope to do to Novak; give him no say in the match by getting on top of the rallies very quickly.

Djokovic's movement and athleticism is of course exceptional and so he will be able to counter Federer's aggression every now and then. He will also try to take the upper hand in rallies if opportunity presents itself, and will probably go on to win those rallies. But Federer will aim to not give Djokovic these opportunities.

I think Federer will be the first aggressor in most of the rallies and will not offer too many of those opportunities for Djokovic to take charge in the rally. Given the form of both men, if Federer serves like he has been in this tournament so far, I expect him to win this match in straight sets.

Saturday 12 May 2012

Madrid Final: Federer vs. Berdych Preview and Prediction

It's been a week of very strange and unexpected upsets but Roger Federer finds himself in yet another Masters final at the end of it.

Here's the schedule.

Federer will take on Tomas Berdych who came through today against an in-form Juan Martin Del Potro. The Argentinian was playing fantastically well, especially in the first set where he found himself 5-3 up. But his first serve deserted him and Berdych - who was also playing very well - wormed his way back in and stole the set in a breaker. It was a very high quality and tightly contested second set which was taken by the Czech in another extremely close tiebreak. 

Federer on the other hand didn't have any major problems with Tipsarevic. It was very windy when the match started and Tipsarevic could not handle it as well as Federer could who stormed through the first set 6-2. Federer served fantastically well - and when his serve is on form, the rest of his game falls into place. He even returned fantastically well. He came through 6-3 in the second set. Tipsarevic could not pull out the performance that he did against Djokovic. Federer had the upper hand in almost all the rallies and Tipsarevic couldn't change the direction of the ball that well - something he is normally brilliant at.


I am anticipating a very high quality match as both guys seem to be playing with a lot of confidence. They both play with a lot of power and so I expect the rallies to be pretty short due to the restricted movement on this surface. It will be very difficult to neutralise rallies and so whoever gets the upper hand in the rally first will almost always win it. 

There's not really a lot to say about this match. Both men are aggressors and very strong behind their serve. They will defend their service games very well and so the set could come down to a tiebreak. Neither player can afford to be erratic or drop the ball short in the points of their service games because it will be difficult to regain the upper hand in the rally. The one who plays the big points better will be the one who will come through. Federer's not done a lot wrong since the match against Raonic and I think Berdych will find it harder to maintain a high level of tennis and so for these reasons I'm going to back Federer to win his 20th Masters title in three tight sets. 

Friday 11 May 2012

Madrid Semifinal: Federer vs. Tipsarevic Preview and Prediction

Hmm blue clay... I find it very pleasing to look at, but numerous players have had their complaints about the introduction of this surface to the tour. Nadal and Djokovic have both come out saying that they will not be returning to Caja Magica if the clay is still blue - and Verdasco was clearly very upset with the surface early in the final set against Nadal when he seemed to be on his way out of the tournament. The prime problem with it is that the players are just having a hard time moving on it - Djokovic has slipped numerous times and in general, the players do not appear to the cover the court as well as they do. Court coverage is of course a vital factor to Nadal's and Djokovic's game, and would have been a key factor to their losses.

Two players who seem to have had less difficulty with the surface are Federer and Ferrer, in the sense that they don't seem to slip on the surface a lot - they do still seem to have a decreased court coverage, however. These two players did battle today and it was Federer who prevailed 6-4 6-4 in a match where Federer played very consistently and Ferrer's serve did especially let him down. Federer will face Tipsarevic who conquered Novak Djokovic. Tipsarevic seemed to have taken a leaf out of Federer's book in this match and really tried to take the ball early, reducing the time Djokovic had to prepare of his shot - which is exactly the right game plan against the Serb.


In this match, I expect both players to come out of the ranks quickly and hold their first few service games. Federer has been very good on serve so far this tournament, and has pulled out top serves when he has really needed them most - which is always a good sign. Ferrer barely had a look into Federer's service games today - he had just one break point which he failed to convert. And it is for this reason I think Tipsarevic will have a very difficult time trying to break the Swiss.

Having said that, Tipsarevic will come out like he did today, trying to really keep the rallies short and being very aggressive. The key to this match for both men will be getting the upper hand in the rally as soon as possible - and neither player will be able to afford to drop the ball short. Most of the time the serve will give the player the advantage in the rally and since movement will be more difficult due to the surface I think there could possibly be a tiebreak in the first set of this match.

All in all I think this match will come down to who plays the big points better. If it comes down to tiebreaks you have to always give the edge to Federer because his serve is a huge weapon and it tends to flourish in pressured situations. I think Federer will be victor in two close sets and meet Del Potro in the final!