Rome Masters Semifinal: Federer vs. Djokovic Preview and Prediction

The pick of the semifinals tomorrow is the meeting between the world's two top ranked players; Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer. Both players come into this match having made meaningful statements in their previous matches. Federer beat Seppi in under an hour and Djokovic rallied past Tsonga in a convincing two set victory. Federer especially seems to have come into the best form he's been in in the last four years. The shotmaking in his match against Ferrero was at times unbelievable. He's serving fantastically well too - it is his serve that I give most credit to for his increased form. When Federer serves well everything else falls into place.

I haven't watched enough of Djokovic this week to make a fair judgement of how he's playing - I've only seen the Djokovic-Monaco match and he was playing very well after a fantastic first set and a half performance from Monaco. I heard today's performance against Tsonga was very good, and the rest of his results have been fairly convincing so it can be assumed he's playing at a good level this week.

Roger and Novak have only met four times on a clay court; Federer winning three of those meetings. We all remember the most recent one at Roland Garros last year where Federer ended the Serb's fantastic run. Federer is playing even better now compared to how he was then, and so he will fancy his chances given his form. As always Federer's serve will be important, but it will be especially important in this match because of the quality of Djokovic's returning ability. Federer will aim to get about 65%+ 1st serves in and I do expect him to serve like that in tomorrow's match as his serve has been on song in the last few tournaments. His serve will give him the upper hand in the rally straight away in most of the points on his serve, and thus he will be very difficult to break. The unique thing about Federer is that when he plays well, the opponent has no say in the match - this is what he will hope to do to Novak; give him no say in the match by getting on top of the rallies very quickly.

Djokovic's movement and athleticism is of course exceptional and so he will be able to counter Federer's aggression every now and then. He will also try to take the upper hand in rallies if opportunity presents itself, and will probably go on to win those rallies. But Federer will aim to not give Djokovic these opportunities.

I think Federer will be the first aggressor in most of the rallies and will not offer too many of those opportunities for Djokovic to take charge in the rally. Given the form of both men, if Federer serves like he has been in this tournament so far, I expect him to win this match in straight sets.