Novak Djokovic vs. Rafael Nadal Preview and Prediction

It's the Australian Open Final. The top two players in the world will do battle on one of the biggest stages in tennis, what more could we ask for? I think that the start of this match will be defining. I personally don't think Nadal played particularly brilliantly against Federer despite winning the match, and Djokovic was up and down in his match against Murray - I thought he was going to lose after the second set.

Novak has looked like he's been waning as this tournament has proceeded - especially against Ferrer, and so I can't really tell if he'll be able to 'outrally' Nadal like he has been doing. Then there's also the physical factor, we all know that Nadal physically will be fine - he always is - when he's on the court that is, but will Djokovic? He's had a tough five setter in the previous round, and I heard he's had a bit of a cold recently. So maybe he won't have the physical stamina to sustain consistent high level tennis in this match - but we've been fooled before. In Madrid last year there were some questions whether Djokovic will be fit enough to challenge Nadal. In the end he more than challenged him. And also but to a lesser extent, the scenario in the US Open last year where Novak had an epic with Federer, and then played phenomenally well in the final. It's this factor that makes this match a little difficult to predict, and hence why the first set will be defining. 

One thing of Novak's that looks better than ever is his mental side of the game. He's at another level mentally compared to any other player. There were some really nervy moments at the end of his semifinal where he seemed completely ice cold and pulled off one particularly brilliant forehand when down a break point at 5-5. Novak is playing at 80% compared to how he was last year but if Novak can consistently play like he did in the last set against Murray, I think this title will be his once again. He was working the ball well, a few misses here and there which we didn't see last year but all in all I'd say he was pretty consistent, he looked to be moving fine, and he lasted comfortably in the countless long rallies. 

Nadal played tidily against Federer, nothing incredible and so I think he'll have to improve in this match because Novak won't be as charitable as Federer was. Novak doesn't have any relative weaknesses that Nadal can take advantage of, unlike against Federer - his backhand is a definite relative weakness, and so Nadal can't rely on extracting errors as a consistent game plan. He'll have to move Novak around the court and hope he'll outlast him, and also take advantage of any opportunities to take the front foot. It seems pretty trivial - as that's what Nadal does to most players, but it wasn't working against Novak last year. Maybe this year it will be different. 

I can see this match going either way but I'll give the edge to Novak as he definitely has the mental edge over Nadal right now. As I've said, I think the first set will be defining but the first set is also more important for Nadal than it is for Djokovic. The one player Nadal seems to get nervous against is the Serb. Four sets in favour of the world number one.