First things first, Federer and Nadal are in the same half and Djokovic and Murray are in the same half. I'm sure that Federer won't be thinking as far as the semifinals yet, but I reckon this is a preferable draw for him (only slightly preferable). Although Federer seems to have Djokovic's 'number' in general, Nadal was not playing especially well in his last match against Monfils at Doha and also Federer would have gained a lot of confidence against Nadal when he destroyed him in London. Having said this, once Nadal gets into the second week of a Slam he tends to play brilliantly. Federer went into the final against Nadal here 3 years ago as favourite, and yet came out second best against Nadal once again.
Nadal's quarter isn't that difficult until the quarters where he's set to meet Berdych but even then I wouldn't expect Nadal to have that much difficulty in that match if it was to happen. In his third match he could play the veteran Ivan Ljubicic which could be tricky, but unless Nadal's out of sorts (which he can be early on in a Slam) I doubt he'll lose that one. After that match he may play either Nalbandian or Isner. We all know the threat that Nalbandian poses to Nadal, but the question mark surrounding Nalbandian is his fitness. Can Nalbandian play consistently well in a 5 set match against Nadal? Doubt it. When your opponent has got a serve like Isner, the match will always be difficult. If Nadal were to play Isner it'll be a difficult match for him, and he'll have to be prepared to play tie breaker sets. Maybe Isner could sneak a set, maybe even two, but I don't think he'll be able to pull a victory out of the bag as I don't think he'll be able to sustain his play for more than three sets, and I'm sure Nadal will win at least one set. In his quarter's he will probably play Berdych, Wawrinka or Almagro. I've got a feeling Wawrinka will make a run to the quarters, and I reckon there's a chance he may beat Nadal, but Nadal is definitely my firm favourite for this part of the draw.
Before I continue, I don't think Federer's back will be a problem at all - I think he pulled out of Doha because he was being over cautious and didn't want to risk the Australian Open which he was absolutely right to do. Federer's first tricky match could be Karlovic or Melzer in the third round. I'd place my bets on my Melzer to be the one who plays Federer but if it was to be Karlovic, Federer will have to be solid on serve, can't afford to drop serve against a server like Karlovic. If he was to play Melzer, I'd expect a straight set win, I don't think Melzer has the power or any major weapons that can bother Federer. He's a great all round player who I love to watch, just lacks weapons. After that he could play any of Verdasco, Tomic or Dolgopolov - they all have major weapons (Verdasco's forehand is incredible) but I doubt they can sustain a performance to win three sets against Federer. In the quarters he'll probably play Fish or Del Potro, both of whom I have no idea what to expect, but it would have to be quite a performance to beat Federer in the quarters - you never know, but I don't see a Federer loss somehow. Federer my definite favourite for this section of the draw.
Djokovic's draw appears to be the easiest of the lot. His first tricky match could be against rising talent Milos Raonic in the fourth round. Djokovic will be on his toes in that match. Raonic has got a huge serve and a brilliant aggressive game, but Djokovic has got a brilliant return and is the best mover in the game. Milos may sneak a set, but it would surprise me if he won. In his quarterfinal he could play tenacious David Ferrer who made a sly run to the semis last year. Djokovic can't afford to play badly against Ferrer, but is certainly the clear favourite in this quarter.
Murray's quarter is the interesting one, his first tricky match will be his first match of the tournament! He plays young American, Ryan Harrison. I've not seen much of Harrison, but judging from what I have seen, he may get a set but probably not the match. Murray's late results in Brisbane were brilliant, despite a rocky start. After that he may play Ernests Gulbis who is clearly very talented and potentially has a huge game, but still (unfortunately) lacks any consistency. In the next match he could play Monfils who was in astonishing form against Nadal. I've never seen him play better. If he could replicate that against Murray, a victory for the Frenchman wouldn't surprise me. That's a big ask for Monfils - especially over 5 sets, but you never know. Assuming Murray goes through, he could then face in-form Tsonga who is always difficult to play. Murray has by far the most difficult quarter and I can see any of Tsonga, Monfils and Murray going through. If i had to bet who will make it to the quarters I'd bet on Murray, but you'd have to hold me at gunpoint to make that bet!
I've got a feeling that this will be the year that Murray will get his first elusive Grand Slam title - possibly at this tournament, but I doubt it. He's got a very tricky draw and may have to spend a lot of extra energy in those matches which may take their total. Whether Nadal's playing well or not before a Slam, you can never count him out once it comes to the Slam. I'm confident he'll get to at least the semis - but I think Federer will have him. Having said this, a Nadal win wouldn't surprise me, it's difficult to predict how Roger will play against Nadal. I think Federer will make the final and once he's in a final he's always in with a very good chance. Overall in this tournament I'd place Djokovic favourite for a number reasons. He'll be very confident, and hungry to get his third Aussie title, always plays well here, and every player will fear playing him after his incredible season last year. The crowd in Australia tend to love him as well but that's a minor point. I'd give the edge to Djokovic 55%-45% in that match. Federer will have to serve well if that is to be the match for the championship.
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