Novak Djokovic vs. Rafael Nadal Preview and Prediction

It's the Australian Open Final. The top two players in the world will do battle on one of the biggest stages in tennis, what more could we ask for? I think that the start of this match will be defining. I personally don't think Nadal played particularly brilliantly against Federer despite winning the match, and Djokovic was up and down in his match against Murray - I thought he was going to lose after the second set.

Novak has looked like he's been waning as this tournament has proceeded - especially against Ferrer, and so I can't really tell if he'll be able to 'outrally' Nadal like he has been doing. Then there's also the physical factor, we all know that Nadal physically will be fine - he always is - when he's on the court that is, but will Djokovic? He's had a tough five setter in the previous round, and I heard he's had a bit of a cold recently. So maybe he won't have the physical stamina to sustain consistent high level tennis in this match - but we've been fooled before. In Madrid last year there were some questions whether Djokovic will be fit enough to challenge Nadal. In the end he more than challenged him. And also but to a lesser extent, the scenario in the US Open last year where Novak had an epic with Federer, and then played phenomenally well in the final. It's this factor that makes this match a little difficult to predict, and hence why the first set will be defining. 

One thing of Novak's that looks better than ever is his mental side of the game. He's at another level mentally compared to any other player. There were some really nervy moments at the end of his semifinal where he seemed completely ice cold and pulled off one particularly brilliant forehand when down a break point at 5-5. Novak is playing at 80% compared to how he was last year but if Novak can consistently play like he did in the last set against Murray, I think this title will be his once again. He was working the ball well, a few misses here and there which we didn't see last year but all in all I'd say he was pretty consistent, he looked to be moving fine, and he lasted comfortably in the countless long rallies. 

Nadal played tidily against Federer, nothing incredible and so I think he'll have to improve in this match because Novak won't be as charitable as Federer was. Novak doesn't have any relative weaknesses that Nadal can take advantage of, unlike against Federer - his backhand is a definite relative weakness, and so Nadal can't rely on extracting errors as a consistent game plan. He'll have to move Novak around the court and hope he'll outlast him, and also take advantage of any opportunities to take the front foot. It seems pretty trivial - as that's what Nadal does to most players, but it wasn't working against Novak last year. Maybe this year it will be different. 

I can see this match going either way but I'll give the edge to Novak as he definitely has the mental edge over Nadal right now. As I've said, I think the first set will be defining but the first set is also more important for Nadal than it is for Djokovic. The one player Nadal seems to get nervous against is the Serb. Four sets in favour of the world number one. 

Federer vs. Nadal Preview and Prediction

It's one of those days again, when Federer and Nadal meet in a Slam - but only the second time that it's in a semifinal. The last time was at Roland Garros in 2004 where Nadal ultimately won his first of many Grand Slam Titles. Anyway, back to tomorrow's match.

Everyone knows what Nadal is going to come out and try; pummel Federer's backhand with his high bouncing forehands, eventually getting a short return which he can use to his advantage. Although this tactic is very predictable now, Nadal executes it perfectly and it is still very effective as there's not a lot Federer can do about it. In attempt to counter it he could try to keep the rallies short by trying to hit his backhand down the line, but Federer hasn't been able to do this very consistently in the past.

The key for Federer is to keep the rallies short and so will have to take advantage of any short balls Nadal gives him and try to work his way up the court, maybe ultimately finishing the point off at the net or extracting an error off Nadal's backhand side after pulling him wide. To do this Federer will have to be very confident in his groundstrokes as there's no room for complacency. Federer will have to get the balance between being aggressive AND playing percentage tennis correct.

Of course Federer must serve well to take the pressure off him in his service games as much as possible. I'm sure we'll see the wide slice serve a lot on the deuce side - he seemed to be experimenting a lot with it in their exhibition match at Abu Dhabi. Nadal normally stands very far back behind the baseline when returning serve, and Berdych was taking advantage of lots of short returns from Nadal in their last match. It was towards the end of the third set when Nadal started stepping into the court and being more aggressive on the return of serve, and Berdych's service games became more difficult. This is something we might see right from the start of the match.

That seems to be a lot things that Roger must do - but if anyone can do it, he can. He did this perfectly in London in November but I don't put much emphasis on that match as Nadal was not feeling 100% in that match, and a match over five sets is a different story. But if Federer serves well he is always very difficult to beat.

This will be the second time these two will do battle at the Australian Open. Federer came into their previous match as a hot favourite after completely pulling Roddick apart, whereas Nadal had that long marathon match with Verdasco which I'm sure we all remember. But it was Nadal who was victor then, not Federer and it is for this reason I don't really know who will win this match, but if I had to bet I'll go for Federer in 4.

Djokovic vs Hewitt Preview and Prediction

The current world number #1 and a former world #1 do battle on Rod Laver Arena in the last match of the day. Hewitt has already pulled off some good victories this tournament and seems to be somewhat revived. Djokovic has only lost 10 games so far this tournament and so is clearly in good form, although I'm sure you already knew that. If Hewitt is going to do any damage in this match he's going to have to play exceptionally well.

 Hewitt is primarily a counter puncher and forces his opponent into long rallies, winning a decent proportion of them. But how many people can consistently win long rallies against Djokovic in this type of form? No one. Not even Nadal could manage to do it consistently in their many meetings during last season. So Plan A is not going to work for Hewitt. Although Hewitt is a good mover on the court, Djokovic is the best mover in the game right now and on top of this Djokovic possesses a lot more power than his opponent. Nor does Hewitt have a dangerous serve to protect his own service games with.

 You've probably already realised that I can only see one winner in this match. Djokovic in three.

Federer vs. Tomic Preview and Prediction

In seven hours or so Roger Federer and Australian young-gun Bernard Tomic will take to court. Tomic has pulled off some brilliant victories already in this tournament, coming back from two sets down against Verdasco and beating his nemesis Dolgopolov in five sets. Federer has looked pretty solid, as ever, and seems to be serving very well. For this reason, Tomic will find it very difficult to break Federer and so will have to be very solid on his own serve to remain competitive. First serve percentage is very important for Tomic.

I've heard that Federer was Tomic's boyhood idol (wow, that makes Federer seem old) and so there's the small possibility that the situation may overcome him, but I doubt it as Tomic hasn't appeared to be nervous or shifty in any of his long and close matches on one of the biggest stages in tennis. He's also played Federer once before in the Davis Cup - another big stage to compete on - and still managed to get one set off Federer.

Assuming both players come out and play like they have been so far in the tournament, I don't think Tomic will be able to pull off the upset in this match because I think Federer will just have too much game for him. He might be able to sneak a set but to get more than that he would have to keep a high level. Furthermore, Tomic has played a lot of tennis already in this tournament and Federer the opposite.

I'll go for Federer in three.

Popcorn Matches of the Day

First things first, Federer plays Beck and Nadal plays Haas. Both matches are worth watching but I can't see either of the underdogs doing any damage.

(Interesting fact, Federer plays on the Hisense Arena after 7 years of always playing on the Rod Laver Arena.) Anyway...

More important are the popcorn matches of the day:

Querrey vs. Tomic
Querrey seems to be working himself back into form and of course has a serve that everyone is weary of. It'll be interesting to see how the crowd favourite will handle that serve. My guess is Tomic in 4.

Isner vs. Nalbandian
Both men will be very well rested after straightforward victories in their first round matches. It's always interesting when a brilliant server comes up against a brilliant returner. I pick Isner in 4 as Nalbandian's fitness is questionable. But you never know, David seems to love competing in five-set thrillers.

Wawrinka vs. Baghdatis
Two aggressive baseliners do battle. Wawrinka is actually my dark horse in this tournament - I think he'll get to the quarters - I'll go for a Wawrinka win.

Dimitrov vs. Almagro
There has been a lot of expectation on the Federer-esque Dimitrov's shoulders after his convincing junior career, but hasn't made his conversion to the men's game yet. He has showed hints over the past couple of years but is yet to break into the top 50 and proceed past the second round in a Slam. Maybe his time has come? You never know - I for one would love to see him win - but I think Almagro will have him.

Have fun watching a tasty day of tennis!

A Controversial Quandry...

Toughest 1st round match to call of the Australian Open?


A Roddick - Haase?
Tomic - Verdasco?
Chardy - Dimitrov?


Those just off the top of my head. Any others worth a shout?

Preview: Australian Open - Draw Summary and Predictions

The Australian Open draw came out recently and having examined it, this is my 'preview' for the first Slam of the year.

First things first, Federer and Nadal are in the same half and Djokovic and Murray are in the same half. I'm sure that Federer won't be thinking as far as the semifinals yet, but I reckon this is a preferable draw for him (only slightly preferable). Although Federer seems to have Djokovic's 'number' in general, Nadal was not playing especially well in his last match against Monfils at Doha and also Federer would have gained a lot of confidence against Nadal when he destroyed him in London. Having said this, once Nadal gets into the second week of a Slam he tends to play brilliantly. Federer went into the final against Nadal here 3 years ago as favourite, and yet came out second best against Nadal once again.

Nadal's quarter isn't that difficult until the quarters where he's set to meet Berdych but even then I wouldn't expect Nadal to have that much difficulty in that match if it was to happen. In his third match he could play the veteran Ivan Ljubicic which could be tricky, but unless Nadal's out of sorts (which he can be early on in a Slam) I doubt he'll lose that one. After that match he may play either Nalbandian or Isner. We all know the threat that Nalbandian poses to Nadal, but the question mark surrounding Nalbandian is his fitness. Can Nalbandian play consistently well in a 5 set match against Nadal? Doubt it. When your opponent has got a serve like Isner, the match will always be difficult. If Nadal were to play Isner it'll be a difficult match for him, and he'll have to be prepared to play tie breaker sets. Maybe Isner could sneak a set, maybe even two, but I don't think he'll be able to pull a victory out of the bag as I don't think he'll be able to sustain his play for more than three sets, and I'm sure Nadal will win at least one set. In his quarter's he will probably play Berdych, Wawrinka or Almagro. I've got a feeling Wawrinka will make a run to the quarters, and I reckon there's a chance he may beat Nadal, but Nadal is definitely my firm favourite for this part of the draw.

Before I continue, I don't think Federer's back will be a problem at all - I think he pulled out of Doha because he was being over cautious and didn't want to risk the Australian Open which he was absolutely right to do. Federer's first tricky match could be Karlovic or Melzer in the third round. I'd place my bets on my Melzer to be the one who plays Federer but if it was to be Karlovic, Federer will have to be solid on serve, can't afford to drop serve against a server like Karlovic. If he was to play Melzer, I'd expect a straight set win, I don't think Melzer has the power or any major weapons that can bother Federer. He's a great all round player who I love to watch, just lacks weapons. After that he could play any of Verdasco, Tomic or Dolgopolov - they all have major weapons (Verdasco's forehand is incredible) but I doubt they can sustain a performance to win three sets against Federer. In the quarters he'll probably play Fish or Del Potro, both of whom I have no idea what to expect, but it would have to be quite a performance to beat Federer in the quarters - you never know, but I don't see a Federer loss somehow. Federer my definite favourite for this section of the draw.

Djokovic's draw appears to be the easiest of the lot. His first tricky match could be against rising talent Milos Raonic in the fourth round. Djokovic will be on his toes in that match. Raonic has got a huge serve and a brilliant aggressive game, but Djokovic has got a brilliant return and is the best mover in the game. Milos may sneak a set, but it would surprise me if he won. In his quarterfinal he could play tenacious David Ferrer who made a sly run to the semis last year. Djokovic can't afford to play badly against Ferrer, but is certainly the clear favourite in this quarter.

Murray's quarter is the interesting one, his first tricky match will be his first match of the tournament! He plays young American, Ryan Harrison. I've not seen much of Harrison, but judging from what I have seen, he may get a set but probably not the match. Murray's late results in Brisbane were brilliant, despite a rocky start. After that he may play Ernests Gulbis who is clearly very talented and potentially has a huge game, but still (unfortunately) lacks any consistency. In the next match he could play Monfils who was in astonishing form against Nadal. I've never seen him play better. If he could replicate that against Murray, a victory for the Frenchman wouldn't surprise me. That's a big ask for Monfils - especially over 5 sets, but you never know. Assuming Murray goes through, he could then face in-form Tsonga who is always difficult to play. Murray has by far the most difficult quarter and I can see any of Tsonga, Monfils and Murray going through. If i had to bet who will make it to the quarters I'd bet on Murray, but you'd have to hold me at gunpoint to make that bet!

I've got a feeling that this will be the year that Murray will get his first elusive Grand Slam title - possibly at this tournament, but I doubt it. He's got a very tricky draw and may have to spend a lot of extra energy in those matches which may take their total. Whether Nadal's playing well or not before a Slam, you can never count him out once it comes to the Slam. I'm confident he'll get to at least the semis - but I think Federer will have him. Having said this, a Nadal win wouldn't surprise me, it's difficult to predict how Roger will play against Nadal. I think Federer will make the final and once he's in a final he's always in with a very good chance. Overall in this tournament I'd place Djokovic favourite for a number reasons. He'll be very confident, and hungry to get his third Aussie title, always plays well here, and every player will fear playing him after his incredible season last year. The crowd in Australia tend to love him as well but that's a minor point. I'd give the edge to Djokovic 55%-45% in that match. Federer will have to serve well if that is to be the match for the championship.

Doha Hosts an All-French Final

Wait, what? Federer and Nadal out?

Earlier today Roger Federer withdrew from his semifinal match against Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in Doha because of a back injury which he says was aggravated during his match against the wildcard Zemlja. It came as a surprise but I'm sure this wasn't a decision Federer made easily, being the defending champion. But all in all I deem it to be a good decision as it is the Australian Open that is important - especially for Federer. He's probably being cautious - rightfully so, and I'm sure he'll be back fit and ready for the upcoming Slam. On a side note this is only the second time Federer has withdrawn from a tournament in his whole career.

As a result Tsonga goes through to tomorrow's final without having to hit a ball, and he is set to play the man of the moment; Gael Monfils who conquered Nadal 6-3 6-4 a couple of hours ago. I only managed to catch the last 4 games of the match when Monfils was down with Nadal serving at *4-2. He won the next 4 games. In crushing fashion too, he was truly playing great. Hitting with huge power, moving incredibly and consistently (the key for Monfils) and I gather that's how he played in the first set. If you missed the match definitely try to catch the highlights, they're worth watching just for the penultimate point that set Monfils up with a match point. His performance in the last 4 games reminded me of Nadal's defeat at the 2009 US Open against Del Potro. But I think its worth mentioning that Nadal didn't seem to be moving brilliantly but still the credit goes to Monfils who played a blinder. Not to worry for Nadal though, I think he'll be ready for the Australian Open and its good he's got some matches under his belt - and as we all know, once Nadal's through to the second week of a Slam he's incredibly difficult to beat - even if he did struggle through the first week.

Tomorrow's final will be interesting and very entertaining I'm sure. They both are excellent when they're hot and Monfils was certainly hot today, and they both have big serves. Tsonga has more variety and finesse around the net but Monfils is the superior mover. They both can be 'up and down' in matches so I think the player who will prevail will be the one who will play more steadily. Tsonga should look to come to the net as Monfils' lateral movement is brilliant and hustles very well. It's a difficult matchup to predict and their head to head (2-1 to Tsonga doesn't appear to be significant) but I'd give the edge to Tsonga because I feel he'd be more difficult to break as his serve is huge and more consistent than Monfils'. But to be honest with you, I don't know.

Happy New Year to all and my apologies..

Not been a lot of activity lately as I've been busy with a HEAP of things. Stuff like university applications and attending a wedding abroad... but will be more active in 2012! Keep an eye out.

I am impatiently waiting to see what will unfold this year. Will Djokovic achieve a career Grand Slam? And will Murray finally get his elusive first? Will Del Potro get back into the top 10? And will Federer get an Olympic Gold in singles and add to his tally of Grand Slams?

Buzzing.

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